A new poll of likely voters from Baldwin Wallace University found a statistical tie in the presidential race in Ohio, a tightening race in Pennsylvania and substantial leads for Democrat Joe Biden in Michigan and Wisconsin – all states in which Donald trump won in 2016.
In Ohio, 44.9% favored Biden while 44.3% went for Trump, with 7% of those polled remaining undecided.
The Baldwin Wallace findings for Ohio match up with FiveThirtyEight’s polling average for the state, which has Trump up by 1 point and shows a close race since March.
Baldwin Wallace political science professor Tom Sutton said Wisconsin and Michigan appear to be pulling away in favor of Biden.
“There’s some effect, we think, related to the protests and demonstrations over the George Floyd killing and other situations over the summer, which may be affecting these poll results as well,” Sutton said.
Voters in Michigan and Wisconsin who said the protests over the killing of George Floyd would affect their vote also favored Biden over Trump – by as much as 6 points in Michigan and 3 points in Wisconsin.
Trump appears to be closing the gap in Pennsylvania, where Biden has a 4-point lead in the polling average – within the poll’s 3-4% margin of error for the four states – after seeing as much as an 8-point advantage in the summer.
Biden appears to also be leading among voters who describe themselves as moderate or independent, Sutton said. Trump’s campaign had tried to paint Biden as a "puppet" for far-left parts of the Democratic Party.
“Whether it’s because of defunding police or the progressive agenda or the possibilities of changes in zoning laws that might lead to different groups into your neighborhood, quote-unquote, who threaten your neighborhood,” Sutton said. “Some of that is just very veiled language that is intended to scare and polarize. And I don’t think it’s working.”
The online poll of about 1,000 likely voters in each of the four states was conducted between September 8-22, mostly before the death of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on September 18 and the announcement that Senate Republicans would seek to confirm her replacement before the end of the year.
“Her death and replacement is something that’s going to galvanize voters on both sides,” Sutton said. “We’re going to see renewed attention to that as an issue for voters who haven’t already cast a vote.”
