The murder rate in Toledo dropped for the third consecutive year in 2024, to the lowest point since a pandemic crime surge.
The small city is representative of a wider trend: Cleveland, Canton, Columbus and metros all over the country have experienced similar declines in recent years.
Nationwide data for the entire year hasn’t been released yet, but the New York Times reported that if early trends held, it’s possible 2024 had the biggest countrywide percent drop in homicides ever recorded.
“This is an encouraging trend,” said Toledo Mayor Wade Kapszukiewicz. “Now, the challenge is to continue this positive momentum into 2025.”
How far has crime fallen?
Following COVID-19 lockdowns and stay-at-home orders, crime across the United States surged.
“There were so many things about the pandemic that just created almost a perfect storm for bad outcomes,” Kapszukiewicz said. “In particular, violent crime and homicides all over the country went way up, and Toledo was no different.”
In 2021, the number of homicides in the city reached a 50-year high: 72 people were murdered.
But since then, that number has dropped dramatically, at a faster rate than the national average. Last year, the number of murders in the city fell 18%, following a 30% reduction the year before.
“We don't want this conversation to be too academic or sterile,” Kapszukiewicz said, “because fundamentally we're talking about human lives and the loss of human life. But if we can for a moment talk about it numerically, I think it is important to highlight that the number of homicides we're seeing in Toledo right now is pretty consistent with what the 30-year average has been. And that is encouraging, especially in the aftermath of the unacceptably higher numbers.”
Other types of crime in the city have fallen, too: 2024 saw fewer shots fired, fewer arsons, fewer auto thefts and burglaries.
“Every category we measure in Toledo has seen massive reductions the last couple of years,” Kapszukiewicz said. “It is true to say that Toledo is certainly a safer place than it was last year and the year before that and the year before that.”
How did Toledo reduce crime?
No single approach can eliminate crime in a city, Kapszukiewicz said.
“So in Toledo, what we've decided to do is a little bit of everything.”
To start, the city increased the size of its police force. For about two decades, the size of the Toledo Police Department had been steadily declining. Since Kapszukiewicz took office in 2018, it’s grown by 50 officers.
“I don't know that anyone thinks that all you have to do to reduce crime is to hire more police. But it is one of the things you need to do,” he said. “When you have more officers, they’re able to do more of the community policing that we all know works.”
Police violence is a worry, Kapszukiewicz said. But he’s confident in the annual training Toledo police officers receive on topics like de-escalation techniques.
“It probably doesn't eliminate the problem, or the threat, altogether,” he said. “But I think it puts us in a position where our officers are going to be the best trained in the state of Ohio to avoid those incidents.”
Additional steps to reduce crime
On top of its expansion of the local police force, Toledo also invested in summer programming for youth, including classes on topics like cooking, coding and podcasting.
“We just wanted to provide positive, healthy alternatives for kids during the summer,” Kapszukiewicz said.
The city also prioritized fighting blight and addressing vacant homes — environmental factors that can sometimes lead to crime.
And Toledo created what it calls the Mayor’s Office of Neighborhood Safety and Engagement, or MONSE.
“These are the violence interrupters that try to head off spats before they become homicides,” Kapszukiewicz said. “Their idea is to build relationships and be the early warning eyes and ears to help us prevent bad things from happening in the first place.”
It’s impossible to eliminate crime from a city entirely, Kapszukiewicz said.
“But our goal is to see continued improvement, and I think that's what the public expects,” he said. “I don't think the public expects perfection. But I do think they expect progress.”
“We've seen some real progress over the last three years. We want to see that continue in 2025. And we're going to work to make sure that happens.”
