Ohio’s no longer a swing state, but ballots are busy this fall, with more than just the contest for the White House in front of the state's millions of registered voters.
Every two years, every one of the 99 seats in the Ohio House and half of the seats in the Ohio Senate—16 this cycle—go before voters.
The bulk of the districts situated in Ohio’s swaths of urban neighborhoods and rural communities are solidly blue or solidly red, which is why partisan primaries in March sometimes determine the outcome. But political strategists say a few districts could switch colors this fall, from Dayton to the suburbs of Cleveland and Columbus.
Republicans grew their supermajorities in both chambers in 2022, which is less likely to occur this year, according to analysts on both sides.
On a good night, Democrats believe they could gain two to four seats in the Senate and maybe more in the House. They won’t take the majority by any means, but they could gain some ground because candidates are running under districts redrawn in 2023—slightly less favorable to the GOP than the 2022 districts.
Ohio Senate races
Outgoing Sen. Niraj Antani’s (R-Miamisburg) district now includes all of Dayton instead of some of it.
Rep. Willis Blackshear (D-Dayton), who is looking to move from the House to the Senate, and Charlotte McGuire, a Republican currently sitting on the State Board of Education, will face off in Senate District 6. Democrats have a slight edge numerically here, according to an Ohio Manufacturers’ Association analysis.
The tightest contest is for outgoing Sen. Matt Dolan’s (R-Chagrin Falls) district in northeast Ohio, which includes Parma and Strongsville, according to OMA data.
Rep. Tom Patton (R-Strongsville) and Parma Heights City Councilmember Sue Durichko, a Democrat, are vying for the seat in Senate District 24. A longtime legislator, Patton has served stints in both the House and Senate since 2003. Durichko also works as a geriatric nurse, according to her website.
Fewer races in the Ohio Senate mean fewer tight races.
Ohio House races
“A lot of those (in the Senate) are not competitive. There's only two or three really competitive races,” said Tim Ross, political director for Ohio’s chapter of Americans for Prosperity (AFP).
AFP Ohio, a prominent and powerful conservative advocacy organization, endorsed two candidates in the Senate and 12 in the House, Ross said in an October interview.
“We look for people who believe some of the same things that we do. We're on the economic side of the ledger: tax cuts, regulatory reform, education freedom,” he said.
Ross said the House is harder to forecast.
Jordan Hawkins, executive director of the Ohio House Democratic caucus, said he agreed that some will be down to the wire. Hawkins feels confident, he said.
“This is the most candidates that we've run since 2018, and I will remind you that that was the last time that we really gained seats in the Ohio House, was 2018,” Hawkins said in an October interview.
Of the dozen or so House districts that politicos consider as for grabs by either party, most are in the suburbs, including two in Franklin County.
Rep. Dave Dobos (R-Columbus) ended his race for reelection after scrutiny over his false claims about graduating from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His district, House District 10, runs from the South Side neighborhoods of Columbus down to Grove City.
Brian Garvine, a GOP attorney, and Mark Sigrist, a Democratic Grove City Councilmember, are running to take over Dobos’ seat. Sigrist clinched the Democratic party primary nomination in March with just 20 votes.
Nearby House District 11 will feature a rematch of sorts between term-limited Sen. Stephanie Kunze (R-Dublin) and her 2020 opponent Crystal Lett, an advocate and former social worker who lost then by just 1,000 votes. The greater Columbus area district includes suburbs like Hilliard and Dublin.
Further from Columbus, incumbents on both sides are defending tough territory. That includes Rep. Dan Troy (D-Willowick) in House District 23 and Rep. Bill Roemer (R-Richfield) in House District 31.
Former President Donald Trump won Troy’s district, along Lake Erie’s shoreline, by about a percentage point in 2020, according to OMA data. He’s facing challenger Tony Hocevar, a Republican business owner. And similarly, President Joe Biden won Roemer’s district near Akron by a point in 2020. He’s facing challenger A.J. Harris, a Democrat serving on school board locally.
If voters ratify the redistricting-related Issue 1 in November, however these 2024 races for Statehouse shake out, candidates could be facing new terrain in 2026.
