The Consulate General of Canada to the United States was at the Columbus Metropolitan Club Wednesday to talk about tariffs and tariff uncertainty.
Detroit-based Consul Colin Bird said the auto industry in the Great Lakes region depends on coordination between the two countries.
"This region functions on an integrated basis. We've been building cars together across the U.S.-Canada border for 120 years now," Bird said. "This region is disproportionately impacted by tariff policy, at least vis-a-vis Canada, and it is disproportionately at a greater risk of losing investment going forward if a tariff wall comes down in the middle of your supply chain."
He said there are about 700 Canadian companies in Ohio.
"A lot of them have made a business model about this cross-border trade, making things together across that border," he said.
Bird said the U.S. only makes about 14% of the aluminum it needs for industry, and 60% comes from Canada.
"I mean, take the aluminum example, right? It takes a decade at least to create a new smelter. It would require four new Hoover dams in the United States to replace Canadian production, which is, it's not gonna happen," he said.
Bird said 70% of what Canada exports to the state is used to manufacture something in Ohio. And, he said Ohio exports more to Canada than to its next six largest export markets, combined.
"You have a $3 billion automotive trade surplus with us, right? But we do it together, because it makes sense for the businesses, we get comparative advantages, we get specializations," Bird said.
He said if the tariffs do lead to a boom in new manufacturing, there's no reason to believe it will be in the Great Lakes region. He said it's likely to move south.
During the last trade negotiations, there was a focus on ensuring good wages for industry workers in North America, with the help of Ohio's former Senators Sherrod Brown and Rob Portman, Bird said.
"We were seeing a lot of investment flowing outside of Canada, outside of the Great Lakes region to Vietnam to China. And we did things in that agreement. We created the $16 an hour requirement on a plant-by-plant basis in Mexico," Bird said. And so part of the grand bargain there was you raise your wages...we will prioritize North American supply chains. We'll give some incentives to high wage jurisdictions or some more credit to the high wage jurisdictions so that everyone can be starting to move up."
Bird said because the administration is readdressing tariffs so soon after negotiating them before, the U.S. is coming from a less credible position.
"We just reached this agreement in 2020 with President Trump. The fact that those provisions have not been followed in the current context for us is a challenge, but I think for U.S. negotiators, it's going to be a challenge as well," he said.
Bird said the U.S. and Canada are stronger as partners in the global trade system.
"I think we're in a better place than we were a couple months ago. The president and our new prime minister, I think, have got off to a good, constructive start, really focused on what Canada and the United States share geopolitically," he said.
