Final Poll Predicts Big Win For Kasich

The last poll before Election Day 2014 projects a win in the governor’s race for Republican incumbent John Kasich over Democratic challenger Ed FitzGerald 62 percent to 38 percent. The results for the race for governor in the Columbus Dispatch poll are similar in the other statewide executive offices, except for treasurer, where Republican incumbent Josh Mandel and Democratic opponent Connie Pillich are separated by six points. The governor’s race prediction is far short of Ohio history’s worst drubbing of a candidate, which happened when Republican George Voinovich was reelected by 47 points over Democrat Rob Burch in 1994. And if it happens, it’s consistent with historical data from 1958, when Ohioans first started electing governors to four-year terms, says Mike Dawson, who operates the site ohioelectionresults.com. “In ten of those 14 elections, they’ve been decided by 10 percentage points or more, and five of them were decided by 20 percent or more," Dawson says. Since 1958, all Republican incumbents have been re-elected. And no candidate for governor has ever won all 88 counties. And Dawson says there appears to be a simple reason – which the Dispatch poll backs up. “In the last ten governor’s races, Republicans have won seven, Democrats have only won three – which means that more Republicans are coming out in those gubernatorial years," Dawson says. The Dispatch poll suggests Kasich has pulled in some voters that some might not expect would be supportive of him. Twenty percent of Democrats said they were voting for Kasich. Forty-one percent of those who voted to repeal the anti-collective bargaining law Senate Bill 5 say they’re voting for Kasich, along with 27% of those who voted for Barack Obama two years ago.